B01 – Update all Scenarios

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What

Based on what you’ve learned from the environment, revise all Scenarios to keep them realistic and ready to be used if needed. You should remove Scenarios that have lost viability and add new Scenarios that have become viable in the new context.

Based on the updates Scenarios, you should check to see if the target Scenario is still your best option, and if not, you should switch to the best option.

Why

First, any type of plan must be continually updated to remain useful, and your viable Scenarios are no exception to that. Because of the high level of uncertainty in programs, it’s not realistic to detail everything upfront, but you should start with a high-level Scenario and keep adding more details to the target Scenario once a month.

Besides the target Scenario, you must keep other Scenarios up to date as well. That’s necessary because you may have to switch Scenarios, not only because the target Scenario is not as good as you thought it would be, but also because one of the other viable Scenarios has become much better than you thought it would be — so much so that you prefer to put your target Scenario aside and switch to it. Such an opportunity exists only when you keep all your Scenarios up to date in this activity.

Who

The ideation team revises and refines the Scenarios under supervision from the program manager. They may recommend switching from the current target Scenario to another viable Scenario, and it’s up to the sponsor to accept or reject the recommendation.

How

First, the ideation team checks to make sure that the stakeholders still expect the outcomes they’ve set to achieve. Then, it goes through each Scenario and adjusts it based on the new realities they are in. This includes

• their increased understanding of the environment; and
• changes to the environment because of
  • what’s done in the program following its target Scenario; and
  • any other external changes to the environment.

The idea is that each Scenario should be ready to take over the program from the target Scenario. The performance information from the projects that are ongoing under the program is an important source of updates for the Scenarios. When the reversibility and switchability of the target Scenario is low, some Scenarios may lose their viability and therefore should be removed. Conversely, the new context may create opportunities for new viable Scenarios: you should be actively looking for those and documenting them in this activity.

Then, it’s time to see if the target Scenario is still your best option, and if not, switch to the best Scenario. Note that when updating Scenarios, the effort required for switching to them should be included in them.

Finally, for the target Scenario, you should add details for the next cycle or the next few cycles. It should not be too detailed, though, because it’s up to the projects to make their part more detailed. The appropriate level of detail at the program level is one that helps the teams initiate projects and judge the viability and justification of the target Scenario.

For projects that you’re supposed to initiate during the month, a Business Case should be prepared beforehand in this activity. You should also appoint the sponsor of the project in this activity.